Start with the questions that can change the decision
A senior housing site is more than a parcel in a growing market. Before a land commitment becomes difficult to reverse, examine how the location, product and economics fit together.
These six questions are a starting framework for independent living, assisted living and memory care. The depth of research should match the stage and significance of the decision.
1. Who is the customer—and where will they come from?
Define the proposed care model and target customer before drawing a market boundary. Consider the likely resident, financial resources, care needs and the role adult children may play in the decision. A convenient radius is not always a realistic market area.
2. How much of the demand is financially qualified?
A large older population does not establish support for a particular monthly charge. Examine affordability alongside age and care needs. Be explicit about assumptions and avoid treating every qualifying household as a likely resident.
3. What does the existing market already offer?
Look at the relevant competitive set, including differences in care model, age, condition, unit mix, services and price. Ask where the proposed community would be differentiated and whether that difference matters to the local customer.
4. Which planned projects are credible competition?
A proposal, an approved project and a community under construction are different kinds of pipeline. Consider status, timing, product and proximity. Test how the conclusion changes if a significant competitor opens sooner than expected.
5. Can supportable rents meet the project’s needs?
Keep the market-supported rent separate from the rent required by the development economics. If the two do not align, determine whether the product, unit mix, cost, operating assumptions or site choice needs reconsideration.
6. What about this specific location could change the answer?
Access, travel patterns, visibility, surrounding uses and proximity to services can influence appeal. Labor and referral considerations may warrant additional research. Cheap land does not compensate for every location weakness.
“You can change almost everything about a project. You cannot change its location.”
Turn the questions into a research scope
List what is known, what is assumed and what could materially change the decision. Then ask which question is most expensive to leave unresolved. A focused first engagement can investigate that issue before you pay for a broader study or commit more capital to the project.
For an initial comparison, explore market intelligence. For a defined project, discuss a market and feasibility study with Coventry.